Small boat arrivals in UK could hit 35,000 this year, according to leaked Border Force documents (2024)

The number migrants crossing the Channel in small boats could rise to around 35,000 this year, lending a potential blow to Rishi Sunak's pledge to "stop the boats".

Border Force documents leaked to The Daily Telegraph show officials have warned that the 36% fall in crossings last year will not occur this year, in part due to a large number of people who have arrived in mainland Europe and may now head to northern France to make the journey to the UK.

The leaked documents reveal that the 35,000 crossings this year is a medium-case scenario that is considered most likely, while the highest projection is that there will be 50,000 crossings.

A source close to James Cleverly, the home secretary, sought to downplay the Border Force projections, arguing they are used for planning purposes and include worst-case scenarios.

"These are annual projections that, by dint of the hard work of the government, Home Office officials and Border Force, and working in partnership arrangements with other countries, did not materialise last year," the source said.

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"It is entirely right to project forward and look at all scenarios, including worst cases. But that is exactly how we plan and focus our attention on the best strategies for this year to ensure those scenarios do not come to pass, to keep driving down illegal migration and ultimately stop the boats."

The Home Office analysis came after the government sought to claim victory for the drop in small boat crossings in 2023 to 29,000 people, compared with about 46,000 the year before.

Mr Cleverly also celebrated the fact that there were no Channel crossings on Christmas Eve, Christmas Day or Boxing Day this year - prompting former Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage to brand the home secretary a "moron".

In response to Mr Cleverly, Mr Farage said: "You may be called Cleverly but you are clearly a moron.

"I am close to Dover now, the wind has been gusting 50mph… That is why there are no migrant crossings.

"You charlatans and liars all deserve to lose your seats at the election."

The government has also come under fire for claiming it has achieved Mr Sunak's target of clearing the legacy backlog of asylum claims - despite the government's own data showing that 4,537 remain.

The Home Office said on Monday that Mr Sunak's "commitment of clearing the legacy asylum backlog had been delivered" and that it had processed more than 112,000 asylum cases overall in 2023.

Mr Sunak promised in December 2022 to abolish the "legacy backlog" of asylum applications made before June 2022.

However, the Home Office figures showed that 4,537 complex legacy applications were still "awaiting an initial decision" as of 28 December, with many of these cases involving asylum seekers presenting as children who are undergoing age verification.

Charities and the Labour Party accused the government of using "misleading" figures.

CEO of the Refugee Council, Enver Solomon, said it is "misleading for the government to claim that the legacy backlog has been cleared as there are thousands still waiting for a decision".

And Labour's shadow home secretary Yvette Cooper labelled the claim that the backlog has been cleared "totally false".

She wrote on X: "Sunak claims to have cleared the asylum backlog. Not true.

"Not even cleared 'legacy backlog' - 4,500 cases not done, 17,000 'withdrawn' by the Home Office but they've no idea where those people are."

The non-legacy backlog of UK asylum cases awaiting an initial decision - which covers applications made on or after 28 June 2022 - stood at 94,062 on 28 December, up 3% from 91,076 on 30 November.

The overall backlog of applications awaiting a decision, including both legacy and non-legacy cases, stands at 98,599, down 10% from the end of November and down 29% from 139,552 at the end of February 2023.

Pressed on the accuracy of the government's claim that it has cleared the backlog, the prime minister's official spokesman said: "We committed to clearing the backlog, that is what the government has done.

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"We are being very transparent about what that entails.

"We have processed all of those cases and indeed gone further than the original commitment. We're up to 112,000 decisions made overall."